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Marine Ecology Progress Series

Inter-Research Science Center

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Marine Ecology Progress Series's content profile, based on 18 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Daytime heat exposure increases nighttime predation risk in a mangrove gastropod

Jawad, W. A.; Collin, R.; Dwane, C.; Kelly, M. W.

2026-05-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.10.723115 medRxiv
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O_LIThe frequency and intensity of heat events is increasing across marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Within the same ecological community, the relative exposure and sensitivity to heat stress may vary considerably among interacting species, like predators and prey. This can be especially true for species that interact at the aquatic-terrestrial interface, as well as for interactions between primarily nocturnal and diurnal species, making it difficult to predict how such communities will respond to habitat warming. C_LIO_LIThermal limit metrics such as CTmax are often assumed to equate with ecological death because such temperatures impair behavioral activity and/or physiological functioning. Prey that are diurnally active can be more frequently exposed to temperatures that approach CTmax compared to their nocturnal predators, which may use thermal refuges during the day. Yet the impacts of daytime heat exposure on nighttime predation risk remain unknown. C_LIO_LIHere, we compared the thermal environment, performance, and heat tolerance between the predatory blue crab, Callinectus sapidus and one of its prey species, the mangrove periwinkle Littoraria anguilifera in a tropical mangrove ecosystem. We examined how exposing prey to heat stress at and below their CTmax affected their capacity to avoid predation in the field at night when predation risk is highest. C_LIO_LIWe found that acute exposure to temperatures near CTmax during the day increased the prey species susceptibility to predation during recovery at night. Although both interacting predator and prey have high thermal tolerance, prey are exposed to conditions that already reach CTmax, suggesting that current extremes in temperatures may already be influencing vulnerability to predation in this ecosystem. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differential exposure to sublethal heat stress in diurnal prey relative to their predator, along with the subsequent impact of these exposures on predation risk, will play a role in shaping these interacting as climate warms. C_LI

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Environmental microbial communities and host selection shape larval microbiomes

Hendricks, S. F.; Tan, A. L.; Williams, A. G.; Buckley, K. M.; Strader, M. E.

2026-05-15 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725214 medRxiv
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Ocean warming is altering abiotic environments and biotic interactions experienced by marine organisms, where sensitive early developmental windows occur in biologically complex seawater communities. The impact of these interactions on developmental processes and fitness in hosts is not well understood, but likely contingent on the establishment of a host-associated microbiome. Here, we hypothesize that temperature and microbial exposure during embryogenesis influence larval microbiome assembly and host morphology. Strongylocentrotus purpuratus embryos were raised in low microbial richness (LMR) or high microbial richness (HMR) seawater at ambient (14 {degrees}C) or elevated (18 {degrees}C) temperature, then collected at 2, 4, and 6 days post-fertilization (dpf) following multiple feedings. Higher microbial diversity was observed in larvae that developed in HMR seawater when compared to LMR. Differences in relative abundances of dominant microbial families between seawater and larvae suggest some degree of host selectivity in microbiome assembly. Temperature did not strongly alter microbiome composition, but both temperature and microbial condition led to differences in larval morphology by 6 dpf, potentially due to enrichment of microbes with chemoheterotrophic functions. By linking how temperature and microbial communities interact with host development, we contribute novel insights into how early-life environmental conditions impact holobiont formation and morphology. One sentence summaryEarly developmental temperature and microbial conditions shape larval microbiome establishment and morphology.

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Remote underwater photographs reveal environmental correlations and patterns in reef manta ray habitat use in Laamu Atoll, Maldives

Guilford-Pearce, B. J.; Staiger, M.; Stevens, G. M. W.; Doherty, P. D.; Ali, J.

2026-05-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.09.723939 medRxiv
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Reef manta rays (Mobula alfredi) are threatened by fishing and other anthropogenic threats. Which, when coupled with conservative life history traits, have made this species vulnerable to extinction. Spatiotemporal ecological knowledge, such as site fidelity and visitation patterns to key aggregation sites, are imperative for effective conservation management of M. alfredi. A novel method of environmental sensing, remote underwater photo systems (RUPs), was employed to understand drivers of M. alfredi habitat use and resighting patterns. RUPs were deployed at four cleaning sites around Laamu Atoll, Maldives. Between March 2021 and May 2023, 455,458 photos were analysed. Generalised linear models revealed increases in M. alfredi presence in response to high chlorophyll-a concentrations, low illumination moon states, the Southwest Monsoon, and in the morning, while human presence had no effect. Branchial spot patterns allowed for 81 M. alfredi individuals to be identified, from 629 sightings, representing 51.59% of Laamu Atolls previously identified population (n = 157). Cleaning stations are visited more intensively during periods of increased productivity of the Southwest Monsoon, likely in response to greater foraging opportunities near the study areas. Additionally, moon state, used as a proxy for tidal strength, was associated with increased visitation during new moon periods, suggesting that weaker tidal states may facilitate presence. These data support integrating RUPs with observational surveys to improve inferences about habitat use and our understanding of cleaning sites frequented by M. alfredi. This study aims to inform the implementation of Laamu Atolls first marine protected area management plan.

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Seasonal microbiome community dynamics in the massive coral Porites lobata impacted by sedimentation

Berg, J. T.; Fifer, J.; Davies, S.; Bentlage, B.

2026-05-12 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.08.723747 medRxiv
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Near-shore coral reefs in southern Guam (Mariana Islands) experience severe sedimentation, in particular during the wet season when rainfall and erosion are high. We sampled fragments of the reef-forming coral Porites lobata from opposite ends of a sedimentation gradient in Fouha Bay, southern Guam, during dry and wet seasons. Using DNA metabarcoding, we characterized the diversity and composition of P. lobata-associated Symbiodiniaceae and bacterial microbiome communities. As in many species of Porites, Symbiodiniaceae communities of P. lobata were dominated by variants of Cladocopium C15 with sites showing differences in Symbiodiniaceae communities attributable to variation in these Cladocopium C15 variants. Bacterial microbiomes of P. lobata were dominated by Endozoicomonadaceae, a family of putative coral bacterial endosymbionts involved in nutrient cycling. Site and seasonal differences in bacterial diversity and community composition were apparent. In close proximity to the mouth of the river draining into Fouha Bay, bacterial diversity was highest during the wet season when sedimentation is generally severe. Microbiome reorganization in response to sedimentation may explain this result, but we also found overrepresentation of bacteria associated with terrestrial origin close to the river mouth and/or during the wet season. Together these patterns highlight that coral Symbiodiniaceae and bacterial communities are both spatially and temporally structured in this disturbed system. IMPORTANCEThis study provides a time series dataset of coral-associated microorganisms, including dinoflagellate algae and bacteria, from a tropical bay impacted by sedimentation that results from upstream erosion of disturbed soils. Characterizing temporal patterns of coral-associated microbes provides insights into the dynamic nature of these communities. While microbiome variability across sites and seasons may be a result of acclimatization to different environmental conditions, we identified bacterial groups of putative terrestrial origin in sampled coral microbiomes that may have been exported from eroded soils to the near-shore reef. Considering that disturbed soils act as hotspots for the proliferation of potentially harmful substances, such as antimicrobial resistance genes, understanding microbial community connections at the marine-freshwater-terrestrial interface is an important step toward evaluating environmental impacts across connected ecosystems from ridge to reef.

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Seeing and smelling mates: multimodal integration and visual gating of chemical cues in female mate-location behavior in the prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii

da Costa, F. P.; Arruda, M. d. F.; Ribeiro, K.; Pessoa, D. M. d. A.

2026-05-15 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.05.12.723903 medRxiv
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Multimodal communication plays a central role in animal behavior, particularly when individuals must integrate information from different sensory channels to make rapid decisions. In aquatic environments, chemical and visual cues differ markedly in their spatial and temporal properties, such that chemical signals may be constrained by limited spatial resolution and temporal instability, potentially requiring visual information to reliably guide social decisions. In decapod crustaceans, both cue types are known to mediate reproduction, yet their relative contribution to mate-location behavior remains unclear. Here, we tested how visual and chemical cues from males influence mate-location behavior in females of the prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Females were placed in a central arena and exposed to four stimulus configurations combining visual cues (a life-size photograph of a male or a control background) and chemical cues (water from an aquarium with or without a male). Attraction was quantified as the time spent in each half of the arena. Females showed no directional preference when exposed to chemical cues alone or when visual and chemical cues were spatially incongruent. In contrast, females spent significantly more time near male-associated stimuli only when visual and chemical cues were spatially congruent. These results indicate that mate-location behavior in this species depends on multimodal integration with a strong contextual dependence on visual information, which appears to gate the effectiveness of chemical cues. Spatially congruent multimodal signals are therefore necessary to guide orientation during mate search, suggesting that disruption of visual or chemical information in aquaculture systems may impair mating efficiency.

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Nutrient content estimation of the world's fishes

MacNeil, M. A.; Maire, E.; Robinson, J. P.; Graham, N. A.; Cohen, P.; Palomares, M.; Hicks, C.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726181 medRxiv
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Seafood nutrients from global fisheries are of increasing importance for research and policy in food security and nutrition. As the chemical composition of fish is determined by what they eat, their energetic demands, and the environment in which they live, nutrient content reflects aspects of physiology and life history, ecological and environmental traits, as well as evolutionary history. Here we present data from Bayesian model estimates of 12 key nutrients (calcium, iron, phosphorus, magnesium, selenium, zinc, vitamin A, vitamin B9, vitamin B12, vitamin D, omega-3 fatty acids, and protein) in wild fish, using a database of reported nutrient content for freshwater and marine species. We then predict the nutrient content of 5588 fish species with traits available from FishBase. We compare our previous model using traits alone with a new model of both traits and phylogeny, and present the data, code, and predictions for models coded in PyMC. These models and predictions, made freely available through FishBase, can be used to explore the historical, current, and future nutrient content of fisheries catch.

7
Harsh snow conditions reduce body mass and reproductive success of an alpine ungulate, inducing carry-over effects.

Cremel, K.; Festa-Bianchet, M.; Langlois, A.; Pelletier, F.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.05.723074 medRxiv
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Winter can affect animal population dynamics by limiting resource availability and increasing energetic costs of movement caused by deep snow. Given the rapid alteration of snowpack properties due to climate change, quantifying how snow characteristics influence reproduction and physical condition is critical. We evaluated how snow cover duration, depth, and density affect spring body mass, reproduction probability, and subsequent autumn body mass of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using 45 years of individual-based data at Ram Mountain, Alberta, Canada, along with historical snow records reconstructed via the SNOWPACK model. Using Bayesian structural equation modeling, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of snow across different sex and age classes. Long and deep snow covers reduced spring body mass across all demographic groups, with yearlings, especially males, losing up to 0.12 kg per additional cm of snow depth. Harsh snow conditions reduced the probability of reproduction for adult females and generated a compensatory indirect effect on mass by avoiding the energetic costs of reproduction. In contrast, yearlings showed no compensatory responses and entered the following autumn in poor condition (up to 14% lighter for males and 8% for females following the deepest snow years). The impact of snow density on autumn mass of adult males was density-dependent, shifting from beneficial at low density (+0.09 kg per kg/m3) to detrimental at high density (-0.04 kg per kg/m3). The effects of snow conditions generate persistent, context-dependent carry-over effects across seasons. Our study suggests that distinct demographic groups rely on different mechanisms to cope with environmental constraints, highlighting complex, time-lagged consequences of changing winter climate on alpine herbivore populations.

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Environmental drivers of metabolomic profiles within and between cryptic lineages of Montastraea cavernosa, the great star coral

Gallery, D.; Abbott, E. N.; Rose Mann, L.; Huzar, A.; Primov, K. D.; Brown, C. P.; Bryant, P. L.; Sedio, B. E.; Matz, M. V.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725494 medRxiv
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Reef restoration practitioners aim to preserve coral genetic diversity by protecting reefs and cultivating diverse genotypes in coral nurseries. However, cryptic genetic lineages in most corals complicate restoration strategies, as the role of between-lineage genetic divergence remains unclear regarding adaptation. In Montastraea cavernosa, researchers have identified cryptic lineages, some strongly segregated by depth. We conducted a ten-week reciprocal transplantation experiment using two cryptic lineages restricted to shallow water (<10m depth), with one lineage more common on nearshore reefs and the other on offshore reefs. We aimed to quantify lineage-specific responses to the environment that explain the genetic and ecological divergence between the two lineages. Surprisingly, the strongest response was not lineage-specific. Instead, both lineages exhibited strong and similar changes in growth and metabolomic profiles, depending on the transplantation habitat. These results suggest that cryptic lineages employ similar mechanisms of adaptation and acclimatization to environmental challenges, despite their genetic distinction.

9
The paradox of neutral carbonate budgets on coral-dominated reefs

Cabrera-Rivera, E.; de Bakker, D.; Molina-Hernandez, A. L.; Medellin-Maldonado, F.; Rioja-Nieto, R.; Medina-Valmaseda, A. E.; Perez-Cervantes, E.; Perry, C.; Alvarez-Filip, L.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724394 medRxiv
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Coral reefs deliver vital services via a complex three-dimensional framework sustained by the balance between calcium carbonate production and erosion, or the net carbonate budget state. In many tropical western Atlantic reefs, ecological decline has reduced carbonate production, yielding near-neutral or negative budgets. Yet some reefs retain high coral cover and, theoretically, should also have high net positive budgets, yet often show modest carbonate accumulation. We used the remote reef of Cayo Arenas in the Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico, to test whether in reefs under suboptimal (variable) environmental conditions, high coral production is offset by robust bioeroder communities, producing neutral budgets. At 14 sites, we quantified carbonate producers and bioeroders to estimate gross production, bioerosion, and net budget states. Despite relatively high live coral cover, mean net carbonate budgets were approximately neutral. Crucially, this neutrality arose not from depressed biological activity (as in degraded reefs) but from an active equilibrium: vigorous carbonate production coupled with substantial bioerosion. These reefs, therefore, represent a contemporary, functional reef state in net stasis. Distinguishing active-neutral from impoverishment-neutral regimes is critical for predicting reef trajectories under environmental change and for targeting management, although near-stasis emerging from high carbonate turnover can appear functionally intact yet operate with limited buffering capacity against net carbonate loss.

10
Habitat-specific environmental characteristics are associated with the movement of male and female loggerhead sea turtles

Roman-Torres, P.; Schofield, G.; Stiebens, V.; Roder, C.; Reischig, T.; Diniz, H.; Correia, S.; Taxonera, A.; Hays, G. C.; Eizaguirre, C.

2026-05-07 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722703 medRxiv
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Linking animal movements to environmental drivers is essential for understanding ecological processes and anticipating species responses to climate change. We investigated habitat-specific movements in a globally significant aggregation of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Cabo Verde. Satellite tags on 15 adults (12 females, 3 males) provided multi-year tracks spanning breeding, migration, and foraging habitats. Movements and phenology differed by habitat. During the breeding season, females used either coastal areas, remaining within [~]20 m depth, or undertook long looping forays up to 360 km. Males showed two strategies: two remained resident in Cabo Verde waters, including Fra, the largest male tracked (Curved carapace length of 105 cm compared with a male mean of 90.7 {+/-} 10.3 cm), while the third migrated annually to distant foraging grounds and returned ahead of the subsequent breeding season. In foraging habitats, turtles adopted neritic or oceanic strategies: neritic turtles remained localised in warm, productive waters, whereas oceanic turtles ranged widely in deeper, less productive areas. Time- and space-shift analyses showed that oceanic foragers used intermediate sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a conditions relative to nearby or temporally shifted alternatives, consistent with movement within a thermal-trophic trade-off. Together, these results show how sex, body size, and energy balance drive habitat-specific movement dynamics in a changing ocean.

11
Tracks, Maps and Gaps: A Testable Research Definition for Critical Chondrichthyan Areas, European Atlantic Insights

Renn, C.; Ciotti, B. J.; Sims, D. W.; Edwards, A.; Turner, R. A.; Hosegood, P.; Sheehan, E. V.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722225 medRxiv
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Designing effective spatial management for chondrichthyans (sharks, skates, rays and chimaeras) requires incorporating critical areas, sites essential for population maintenance, such as reproductive and feeding areas. Yet most area-based measures have been developed without consideration of chondrichthyan habitat use. The Important Shark and Ray Area (ISRA) initiative has been pivotal in designating priority areas through a rigorous, consultative process. To complement this, our study offers researchers a testable definition for generating robust evidence to strengthen future critical area delineations and related management decisions. We define critical areas using three criteria: 1) relative frequency of use, (2) extended within-year occupancy and (3) repeated use across years. This framework enables objective comparison among candidate sites and is generalisable across different critical area types. The definition builds upon established early-life-stage habitat concepts and applies these to broader life-history functions. The utility of this framework is then demonstrated through a systematic review of contemporary peer-reviewed literature of critical chondrichthyan areas in the European Atlantic. The review highlighted 62 critical areas with Strong evidence and 41 areas of Moderate strength evidence, which informed the European Atlantic ISRA selection process. Research effort was concentrated in inshore areas, particularly around the British Isles and Portugal, with biases towards large, threatened and commercially valuable species, whilst chimaeras were notably underrepresented. Early-life stage areas were most frequently identified, whereas resting areas were rarely documented. Evidence patterns and biases are examined in the context of evolving critical area concepts to advance their development and improve the quality and breadth of future research. By outlining a testable definition, identifying key knowledge gaps, and proposing research and reporting guidelines, this work enhances the consistency, comparability, and spatial coverage of future chondrichthyan habitat research to support its application to conservation planning.

12
Exploring sources of uncertainty in the estimate of waterfowl harvest in the United Kingdom

Ellis, M. B.; Lewis, H. M.; Cameron, T. C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724812 medRxiv
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There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

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Meiofaunal communities flourish in Antarctic marine sediments despite the harsh environmental conditions

Garcia-Cobo, M.; Fontaneto, D.; Eckert, E. M.; Sabatino, R.; Cecchetto, M.; Schiaparelli, S.; Martinez, A.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726228 medRxiv
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While Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems support low metazoan diversity, the surrounding marine macrobenthos is rich. However, marine meiofauna remains historically neglected, leaving its diversity patterns unclear. In this study, we used 18S rRNA gene metabarcoding alongside an enhanced taxonomic annotation pipeline to characterize marine meiofauna diversity in the Ross Sea, comparing it to global datasets. We evaluated how depth, habitat type, and mesh size influence community structures to test if habitat heterogeneity drives diversity despite the harsh Southern Ocean conditions. Our results revealed exceptionally high diversity, with metazoans richness comparable to or higher than temperate regions. Although environmental variables had limited effects on taxonomic richness, they significantly shaped community composition, with habitat type explaining the highest proportion of variance. Interestingly, we detected several ASVs 100% identical to North Sea and North Atlantic sequences, likely reflecting the limited taxonomic resolution of the 18S marker rather than global dispersal (the "meiofaunal paradox"). Overall, these findings demonstrate that Antarctic marine sediments host rich meiofaunal communities where ecological processes operate similarly to other global regions, contrasting sharply with depauperate continental Antarctic ecosystems.

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Ecological bleaching trajectories under severe heat stress are only partially captured by acute heat stress assays

Szereday, S.; Chew, L. K.; Henry, J. A.; Zulaikha, N.; Voolstra, C. R.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725291 medRxiv
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Global marine heatwaves have devastated tropical coral reefs, and further mortality is projected under ongoing climate change. Identifying thermally tolerant coral colonies is therefore a priority for conservation, restoration, and research. Portable acute heat stress assays (e.g., CBASS) enable rapid, standardized estimates of coral thermal tolerance under field conditions. However, it remains unresolved whether such experimentally derived metrics (ED5, ED50, DW) predict bleaching and mortality in situ. Here, we quantified acute thermal tolerance metrics for 2,068 coral colonies across 12 common Indo-Pacific species, six months prior to an unprecedented heat stress event in northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and compared experimentally derived ED and DW values to subsequent bleaching severity and mortality in the field. Experimental thermal tolerance metrics explained only a limited proportion of variation in bleaching outcomes and survival. Predictive power varied among species and was higher in slow-growing species. Our findings suggest that while acute heat stress assays capture substantial variation in coral thermal tolerance, their ability to predict in situ outcomes is context-dependent and diminishes under severe thermal stress. Ultimately, in situ coral bleaching under severe heat stress may reduce the discriminatory capacity of acute assay-derived tolerance metrics.

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Modeling environmental surveillance of Dracunculus medinensis in aquatic habitats using a three-dimensional agent-based model

Jeong, J.; Garabed, R.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.05.722897 medRxiv
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Guinea worm disease eradication efforts may benefit from environmental surveillance methods capable of detecting infected copepod intermediate hosts in aquatic habitats. We developed a three-dimensional, spatially explicit agent-based model to examine how ecological processes influence detection probability for a hypothetical water sampling method. The results show that surveillance sensitivity is shaped by the combined effects of larval diffusion, copepod density, and pond size, with interactions among these factors producing nonlinear relationships. Detection, in our model, was concentrated within a relatively restricted period after larvae matured to the infective stage and before dispersal and mortality reduced presence, indicating a limited spatiotemporal window for effective sampling. Surveillance performance peaked under intermediate dispersal regimes that generated sufficient spatial overlap between larvae and intermediate hosts, while both limited dispersal and excessive diffusion reduced detection by constraining encounters or diluting larval concentrations. Increasing habitat size reduced detection by diluting larval concentrations, but the magnitude of this effect depended on copepod density and dispersal dynamics, producing nonlinear and threshold responses rather than simple scaling with pond volume. Spatial and temporal patterns of detection shifted as larvae dispersed, with the most favorable detection periods occurring when both larval abundance and intermediate host encounters were elevated. These findings indicate that surveillance can be guided by local ecological conditions. When the timing of larval introduction is uncertain, effective surveillance requires repeated sampling over time to capture transient windows of detectability and the sampling will be less effective in very stagnant and highly mixed waterbodies. Overall, this study demonstrates how mechanistic modeling can support the design and interpretation of environmental surveillance strategies for Guinea worm eradication programs. Author summaryGuinea worm disease is close to eradication but confirming that transmission has fully stopped remains difficult because detecting infectious larvae in water is challenging. Transmission depends on freshwater copepods that become infected after ingesting Guinea worm larvae. These copepods are short-lived and unevenly distributed within ponds, and infected individuals may die before larvae reach the infective stage. As a result, environmental detection is inherently uncertain. We developed a three-dimensional agent-based model to simulate larval dispersal, copepod infection, and water sampling in a pond environment. The model shows that detection is constrained to a brief period when mature larvae and copepods overlap in space and time, and that this window depends strongly on local ecological conditions such as larval dispersal, copepod density, and pond size. Because infected copepods can be present outside these narrow detection windows, negative water samples do not necessarily indicate absence of transmission, highlighting the need for repeated, spatially targeted surveillance during the final stages of eradication.

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Analyzing how habitat degradation drives extinction dynamics using physiologically-structured population models

Okamoto, K. W.; Ong, V.; Balaguera-Reina, S. A.; Dinh, D. P.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.649732 medRxiv
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Elucidating how habitat degradation facilitates extinction is critical for effective conservation efforts. Here, we propose integrating physiologically-structured population models into stochastic population viability analyses to assess how differing consequences of habitat degradation interact to drive extinction dynamics in a focal population. Using the isolated spectacled caiman Caiman crocodilus population/ecomorph from the Apaporis River as a case study, we find that threatening the resource base, which individuals increasingly rely upon, to outgrow vulnerable size ranges and mature accelerates extinction. We also found that when habitat degradation impacts both the primary adult and juvenile resource bases, this can have marked synergistic effects on threatening population viability. By contrast, destroying nesting sites has only a small effect on accelerating the impact of deteriorating prey availability. Through integrating community-level feedback between habitat degradation/change and population dynamics/structure, our approach provides a comparative framework for assessing the relative importance of distinct mechanisms through which habitat degradation ultimately drives extinction risk.

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Human and pet multimodal cues intensify wildlife fear responses

Hirobe, K.; Senzaki, M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.725053 medRxiv
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O_LIFear of humans can drive persistent changes in wildlife behavioural and life-history traits, with cascading effects on entire ecosystems. Human multimodal cues and pet cues may influence impact of such fear, yet no study has tested how wildlife fear responses change when human acoustic cues and pet visual and acoustic cues are added to human visual cues. Filling this gap is important for managing human and pet outdoor activities while conserving wildlife. C_LIO_LIHere, with dogs representing the pet, we tested the effects of human and dog cues on fear responses of wild sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis) in approximately 800 km2 area, northern Japan, using alert distance (AD) and flight initiation distance (FID). First, we measured AD/FID with an approaching surveyor alone and with additional cues. Then, we fitted linear mixed-effects models while controlling for key covariates. C_LIO_LIFrom analyses with 266 observations, AD was estimated at 80.0 m with the human visual cue alone, and dog barking increased AD by 18.4m. FID was estimated at 57.1 m with the human visual cue alone, and human voice and the dog decoy increased FID by 11.3m and by 8.5 m, respectively. C_LIO_LIThese results demonstrate that human multimodal cues and pet cues can increase prey fear responses. Our findings also suggest that dog walking may expose wildlife to simultaneous human and pet cues more consistently than predator co-occurrence typically does in nature. The increase in FID with human acoustic cues, in contrast to previous studies, suggests that animals may shift cue weighting depending on predator species, potentially using human voices to help identify the threat as human. C_LIO_LIPrevious studies show that multimodal predator cues increase prey fear responses, and our findings extend this flamework to fear responses towards humans. Our findings can inform more tolerant management of human recreation and pet walking in sensitive areas. Reducing human and pet cues through signage, guidance, and zoning may prevent flight and associated energy expenditure, whereas mitigating vigilance may require behavioural guidance and spacing between pet-walking visitors. Overall, shaping how humans and pets behave may be more practical than blanket restriction. C_LI

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A sea full of measures: EU conservation goals for benthic habitats will require wide-ranging spatial measures

Probst, W. N.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724278 medRxiv
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The use of marine space by human activities is globally increasing, resulting in a competition with spatial management measures for marine conservation. Within the European Union (EU) these measures are currently implemented by the union member states to achieve the UN sustainable development goal (SDG) of protecting at least 10 % of the national marine waters. Further, the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Nature Restoration Regulation (NRL) are the two main legal means for the implementation of ambitious spatial conservation targets for benthic habitat types, which can range from 10 - 90 %. This study analysis how the targets of the MSFD and NRL are currently met in the German waters of the North Sea and which areas the full implementation of both legislations might require. A spatial optimisation tool ("prioritizr" in R) was used to identify optimised solutions for the conservation of up to 75 % of NRL benthic habitats. The current spatial conservation measures (which ban demersal trawling within certain zones of designated marine protected areas, MPA) are not sufficient to reach the targets of the MSFD and NRL. Extending the exclusion of demersal trawling to the entire area of the MPAs would achieve a sufficient coverage for all habitats except for offshore sand and mud habitats. These could be further protected, when including areas for offshore wind farms, where trawling is also banned. However, to date it is unclear, if and how these (or other human use) areas could be included into spatial conservation regimes, a debate that needs to be resolved to allow for the achievement of the ambitious MSFD and NRL targets.

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Environmentally-determined symbiont communities highlight flexibility of Aiptasia-algal symbiosis

Ruggeri, M.; Bedgood, S. A.; Machuca, C. S.; Krueger-Hadfield, S. A.; Kenkel, C. D.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724104 medRxiv
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The mechanisms driving host-symbiont associations across space and time in contemporary mutualisms can give insight into the capacity for symbiotic organisms to respond to environmental change. High specificity between partners can increase cooperation and facilitate efficient holobiont selection, whereas low specificity could reduce host benefit, but facilitate adaptive associations across heterogeneous environments. The present study explores specificity in natural populations of a cnidarian-algal model, Exaiptasia diaphana, across a latitudinal gradient to understand the genetic and environmental effects driving host-symbiont associations, and their relation to heritable and/or environmental symbiont acquisition. We found that symbiotic associations were extremely flexible in E. diaphana, regardless of transmission mode. E. diaphana were capable of associating with diverse symbiont communities across genetically identical hosts seeded with vertically transmitted symbionts, as well as across highly connected host populations which acquire symbionts horizontally. Host population connectivity was complex and unrelated to geographic distance, whereas symbiont community composition tracked the thermal gradient, potentially due to context dependent biotic interactions. These results indicate that in a flexible symbiosis, symbiont communities are environmentally-determined, suggesting the future of this symbiosis will likely depend on climate adaptation of symbionts.

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Crouching tiger, hidden dangers: Avian fatality rates reduced by red-blade patterning at a species-rich African wind farm

Simmons, R. E.; Martins, M.; Peralta, F. C.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722424 medRxiv
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Avian collision rates are certain to rise as renewable energy industries roll out wind and solar farms to reduce fossil fuel impacts in biologically diverse areas of the world. Technological solutions are often sought to decrease mortality rates, but for developing nations automated shut downs are expensive, and alternatives required. A promising route is to increase blade visibility to birds using high contrast colours. Despite the success of the solid black-blade experiment in Norway only one other black-blade field-study in the Netherlands has explored this possibility, with no significant results. We tested the use of colour-patterned blades at a species-rich, 37-turbine, wind facility in Hopefield, South Africa. Two broad "signal red" stripes were applied to a single blade at four high-fatality turbines, in 2023 by Umoya Energy. Avian fatality rates were compared before and after painting using the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) approach. Seventy-five fatalities of 23 species of raptors, passerines and wetland species over 24 months were compared for the same 20 turbines after patterning with two sets of controls: (i) their four nearest neighbours (NN) and (ii) all 16 controls (AC). Over 32 months 25 fatalities were recorded, 23 occurred at the controls and only two at the patterned turbines. Testing with Bayesian Generalized Linear Models (BGLMs) revealed a median 83% reduction in fatalities at the patterned blades for both the NN turbines (credible intervals 14% - 98%) and the AC comparisons (30% - 97%). Bayes Factors (BF) revealed strong statistical support for NN (BF = 49.9) and AC comparisons (BF = 159). There was little evidence that birds avoiding patterned turbines increased fatalities at the neighbouring turbines as there was a small median 15% increase in fatality rates when NN controls were compared with other controls, and weak statistical support (BF = 0.15). Among 14 raptor species recorded on site, 10 species have suffered fatalities. Of seven individuals killed prior to treatment at the four patterned blades, only one was killed post-treatment suggesting blade patterning is equally effective at reducing raptor fatalities. Our results show that patterned blades had a high probability (83%) of reducing fatalities with strong statistical support despite the small samples. This supports the Norway experiment in a high diversity African setting, but with red patterns not a solid black design. The strong effect of red stripes may arise from both the high contrast it provides and the possible warning effect that red may elicit. We call for additional experiments to differentiate the effect of patterns and colours for the optimal design to reduce avian-turbine collisions.